2026 College Football Playoff surprise contenders: Are Iowa, Florida and UCLA for real?

We’re more than a month through the 2026 college football season, and things have certainly been wild to begin the year. We’ve seen our share of upsets, rankings shakeups and, of course, surprise teams emerging. 

The first few weeks have already completely changed preseason expectations and put several unexpected programs squarely in the College Football Playoff conversation.

Which surprise Power Four teams are legitimate College Football Playoff contenders?

There are four undefeated Power Four squads in particular that have made some noise early this season, but are any of them legit College Football Playoff contenders? We’re going to break that down, plus dive into how the Group of Six looks and which team appears to be best positioned to make the CFP. 

Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes are somehow 4-0. They blew out overmatched foes in Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa and took down rival Iowa State 16-13 in classic Iowa fashion, and the Hawkeyes got a massive win over Michigan on Saturday.

Iowa looked left for dead at times, but a 91-yard drive concluded with a last-second touchdown pass to get the win at The Big House, stunning the Wolverines and satisfying many fans who felt Michigan robbed Western Michigan in Week 1. 

Now, the Hawkeyes are 4-0 with two very notable wins under their belt. So what’s next? 

Iowa has Ohio State at home this weekend. Ouch. The Buckeyes are 3-1 and really can’t afford another loss. But after that, Iowa has Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska. The Hawkeyes should be the favorites to win each of those games after hosting the Buckeyes. 

From a pure schedule standpoint, it’s hard not to buy in on the Hawkeyes. They have the ability to dominate at the line of scrimmage, eat clock and display elite special teams against every remaining foe outside of OSU. But the offense, man. 

Iowa has long been a very good team under Kirk Ferentz, but the program’s offensive ineptitude has held it back from the top of the Big Ten hierarchy. Its two Power Four wins came with 36 total points scored. The running game also wasn’t particularly great in the wins over ISU and Michigan.

I may think differently after they host the Buckeyes on Saturday, but I think the Hawkeyes have a great chance to finish at least 10-2, and that would have them firmly in the CFP conversation. At some point, though, they have to be better offensively, and maybe the game-winning drive at Michigan will be a kickstarter of sorts. 

Verdict: Contender

Florida Gators

The Gators got the win of the weekend, in my opinion, with a thorough home victory over a very good Ole Miss squad. Florida is 4-0 under new head coach Jon Sumrall and is now ranked in the top 10.

It’s a massive rise for a program that has been dormant for a while and has a first-year head coach, but in this new age of NIL and the transfer portal, teams can make massive leaps from year to year and no one should really be surprised anymore. It also helps to have running back Jadan Baugh, who has 600 rushing yards already this season.

Like Iowa, the Gators have a big test this weekend against Missouri, which just lost to Mississippi State. The Tigers play host, which is notable, as the Gators have been at home for three of their four games this season. If Florida can get past Missouri, the Gators have a great shot at the CFP.

The end of October is tough, with visits to Texas and Georgia sandwiching the Gators’ bye week. But other than those two games, Florida only has one game against a currently ranked squad, and that’s Kentucky. I’m not sure if the Gators will beat Texas or Georgia, but beating everyone else is certainly on the table.

But if the Gators lose to Texas and Georgia, that only leaves one loss available, really, considering three-loss teams really don’t make the Playoff unless that third loss comes in a conference title game. Given I think Florida loses at Texas and Georgia, going 6-0 in its other games is a tough ask for a brand-new coaching staff. Maybe Florida goes 8-4 or 9-3, but I have a hard time seeing the Gators going 10-2 or better, even after what they showed against Ole Miss last weekend. 

Verdict: Pretender

Mississippi State Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are 4-0 and are one of the best surprises in the nation thus far, especially as they haven’t had a winning season since 2022.

Head coach Jeff Lebby deserves a lot of credit for this turnaround in Year 3, but all Mississippi State talk starts and ends with one man – Kamario Taylor. The sophomore quarterback has been amazing this year, tossing 14 touchdowns and rushing for 185 yards and a score as well. He’s certainly in the Heisman Trophy race, and perhaps no player has been more important to his team’s success than Taylor has been to the Bulldogs. 

MSU beat LA-Monroe, Minnesota and South Carolina to start the year, but the Bulldogs really cemented themselves as a team to watch with a 31-24 win over Missouri. Clearly, the talent is there to make some noise. 

But like Iowa and Florida, keep an eye on the schedule starting this week. Mississippi State hosts Alabama this Saturday, has LSU in two weeks, Texas on Halloween and then the Egg Bowl with Ole Miss to wrap things up.

I can see MSU beating any one of those aforementioned teams, but beating all four? Or even two or three? That’s a big ask. Going 2-2 against those four may well result in a CFP berth, but even as good as Taylor has been, I don’t think this is the year for MSU to emerge as a contender. Assuming Taylor is back for 2027, the Bulldogs will be in the CFP conversation from the very start.

Verdict: Pretender

UCLA Bruins

For Big Ten teams needing new head coaches, just hire from James Madison. It worked for Indiana with Curt Cignetti, and it appears to be working at UCLA with Bob Chesney. 

The Bruins are 4-0 after winning all of three games last year. They’re fresh off a 54-3 drubbing of Maryland and have also beaten Cal, San Diego State and Purdue. UCLA has three running backs with over 150 yards, and all three are averaging at least 5.5 yards per carry. 

Now, the schedule hasn’t been the easiest, but you play who’s on it. So far, so good. But things pick up with the Bruins facing Oregon in Autzen next weekend after a bye week this week. Whether Dante Moore is back or not remains to be seen, but regardless, that’s a huge first test for UCLA.

The schedule after that is more than manageable. A season finale date with USC headlines the rest of the Bruins’ schedule, as the other six remaining opponents are all unranked, with Michigan and Wisconsin maybe being ranked when the Bruins face them.

I like the schedule and the running game, but I’m not sure how well UCLA’s formula is going to work against more competent Big Ten opponents than Purdue and Maryland. UCLA’s trajectory is way up from last year, but I’m not ready to anoint them as a CFP contender just yet. An upset at Oregon would certainly change my mind, though.

Verdict: Pretender

Which Group of Six teams can make the College Football Playoff?

There are a lot of Group of Six teams in good shape when it comes to the CFP. We saw two teams from this group make the Playoff last year, but with rule changes to aid Notre Dame set for this year, it would be shocking if we saw that happen again. As such, this is a fight for one spot until proven otherwise. 

Boise State is the most notable G6 team. The Broncos have a storied history, made the first 12-team CFP and are 3-1 with the one loss being a very close one at Oregon. They have a very manageable schedule the rest of the way in a new-look Pac-12, and they’re likely the favorite to make the CFP from the Group of Six, especially as they’re the one ranked team from these conferences.

North Dakota State is an FBS school after decades of FCS dominance, and it’s been business as usual for the Bison. They’re 4-0 and 1-0 in Mountain West play. The schedule is more than manageable the rest of the way, with UNLV and New Mexico standing out the rest of the season. The Bison are in great shape right now, and I’d rank them No. 2 behind Boise State as far as most likely G6 reps to make the CFP.

UMass stunned the college football world with an upset over Rutgers after going winless last year. Now? The Minutemen are 4-0. Wow. The MAC is a mess and Toledo is the only other team better than 2-2, so it’s hard to tell how good any of these teams really are. Going undefeated may be the only path for UMass to make the CFP, but going from 0-12 to 13-0 seems impossible. Don’t count on it. 

The AAC has five notable teams all 3-1 or better. Florida Atlantic, Memphis, Tulsa and UTSA are all 3-1, and the Golden Hurricanes have the best win of the bunch, beating Oklahoma State. South Florida is 4-0 under new head coach Brian Hartline, who comes from Ohio State. There’s going to be a lot of overlap in terms of common opponents, so this conference’s best hope for the CFP would be USF going unbeaten. These foes all look pretty even to date, so I’m not going to buy that the G6 representative is from the AAC. 

And lastly, there’s the Sun Belt. James Madison is 4-0, while Georgia State and Appalachian State are 3-1. All three teams play one another this year, and while JMU made the CFP last year, I’m worried that all these squads are going to beat each other up and hinder any CFP hopes.