MLB’s biggest X-factors down the stretch: Tarik Skubal, Aaron Judge and more

We’ve reached the final stretch run of the 2026 MLB regular season. We’re a week removed from the trade deadline, so these rosters are pretty much what each team has to deal with for the next month-plus. 

Some teams got major additions at the deadline that will play major roles in shaping the postseason and World Series races, while some teams are hoping for injured players to return and make a major impact. And one fringe contender is hoping a former MVP runner-up starts to look like his former self. 

X-factors who could decide the 2026 MLB playoff race

With SeatGeek serving as the Official Ticket Marketplace of MLB, we’re following all the top contenders very closely as we move into the home stretch of the 2026 season. As such, we’re going to break down 10 players who can be major X-factors for top contenders over the rest of the regular season and, potentially, into October. 

Los Angeles Dodgers SP Tarik Skubal

The team that won the last two World Series got the biggest name on the trade market with Skubal, a two-time Cy Young winner. The star lefty moved on from Detroit to L.A., where he’ll be tasked with helping the Dodgers with their 3-peat bid. Skubal made his Dodgers debut Tuesday, giving up two runs to the Cubs in six innings and taking the loss despite pitching well. 

Even with as loaded as the Dodgers’ roster is, they do really need Skubal down the stretch. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are on the IL and Shohei Ohtani hasn’t pitched in a month due to a knee injury. They needed rotation help, so they got arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Skubal would be an X-factor for any contender, but the Dodgers especially needed a big starter to add to the mix. Plus, given Skubal’s prowess and the Dodgers’ status as reigning champs, he’ll be under the microscope for the next few months no matter what.

Chicago Cubs SPs Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes

The Cubs’ trade deadline wishlist was simple: They needed starting pitching. Chicago didn’t add a player with club control beyond 2026 like some had speculated, but the team made two nice additions in Gausman from Toronto and Holmes from the Mets. Both will be key pieces the team will rely on significantly down the stretch.

Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the 2020s, though 2026 has been a bit rough for the veteran right-hander as he had a 4.38 ERA before the trade. He certainly made a nice first impression in a Cubs uniform, though, spinning seven innings of two-run ball in a win over the Royals last Friday. Gausman’s fastball and splitter both are grading out well this year, so if he can find his slider, he could be a real force for the Cubs heading into the postseason. 

As for Holmes, he’s more of a wild card. First, Holmes is in just his second MLB season as a starting pitcher after years of relief and closer work for the Yankees. He posted a 3.53 ERA in 2025 for the Mets, and Holmes was off to an even better start in 2026 with a 2.39 ERA over his first nine starts. Unfortunately, Holmes took a hard comebacker off his leg and was out of action from May 18 until his first start in a Chicago uniform on Saturday. Holmes allowed four runs in four innings to the Royals. Holmes has shown he can be an All-Star-caliber starting pitcher, but the Cubs will need him to find his form right away after such a lengthy absence. 

Philadelphia Phillies 2B Luis Arraez

The addition of Arraez is a very un-Philly move. The Phillies rely on slugging, and Arraez is a three-time batting champ and a contact wizard. That being said, he’s slugging a bit more this year – albeit doubles more than homers. Still, Arraez joined the Phillies this deadline, and he’ll certainly be an important piece moving forward. 

The Phillies have essentially relied on two guys – Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber – to manufacture all their runs this year. Trea Turner, Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm have all struggled, and the outfield has been one of the worst in the majors offensively. Arraez, at the very least, is a reliable hitter who can either be an early lineup presence who Schwarber and Harper can drive in, or he can hit in the middle of the order and drive in runs. 

The other X-factor element here is defense. Arraez has had a breakout defensive campaign at second base, but his addition has drastically shaken up Philly’s defensive alignment. Bohm, Stott, Harper and even Schwarber are all shuffling around to accommodate Arraez’s arrival, and the team was already one of the worst defensive squads in baseball. Whether that shakeup causes them to lose some meaningful games is certainly worth watching. 

Seattle Mariners C Cal Raleigh

The Mariners have been able to mitigate their offensive struggles in recent years by hitting home runs. No team scores a higher percentage of their runs via the long ball than Seattle, and Raleigh has been a major run producer as such. 

After swatting 60 homers last year, Raleigh started the year ice cold, got hurt, missed considerable time and has continued to struggle upon his return in late June. The contact, the slug, the run production – all of it is gone. 

Raleigh isn’t the only star Mariner struggling – Julio Rodriguez and Josh Naylor have underwhelmed – but Raleigh has the kind of power that can reshape games and series. If he can get hot and look anything close to how he did in 2025, the Mariners can certainly make a run. The Mariners simply need more from him, Rodriguez and Naylor. 

Arizona Diamondbacks SP Corbin Burnes

If the Diamondbacks stay in the hunt and Burnes returns, that’s huge. Arizona has played some good ball of late, and while the team had a lackluster deadline, the Dbacks are well positioned to be a factor the rest of the season in the NL Wild Card race. 

The rotation after Eduardo Rodriguez is suspect, hence the need for Burnes to return. He suffered a setback in his recovery from Tommy John, as he’d been pushing for a midseason return. But still, if he’s back in early September, four to five strong starts from the former Cy Young winner could really shape the NL Wild Card race.

Tampa Bay Rays SP Freddy Peralta

The idea of the Mets trading Peralta at the deadline would have sounded insane before the 2026 season began. After all, New York had a busy offseason ahead of what was supposed to be a very competitive year for the club, and Peralta was acquired to lead the rotation in the final year of his contract. Instead, the Mets have been one of baseball’s worst teams, and Peralta is in the midst of the worst year of his career. The Rays are banking on getting Peralta back to form for their stretch run, though his first appearance in a Tampa uniform was a rough one: seven runs in 3 2/3 innings in a road loss to the Rockies. 

I like the fit. The Rays have a great pitching development system, and the team has really leaned on changeups from its pitchers in 2026. That’s important to note as that was, as recently as 2025, Peralta’s best pitch, with hitters hitting under .200 off it. This year, they’re hitting nearly .300 off Peralta’s changeup. If the Rays can fine-tune a few things, Peralta gives them a nasty four-man rotation grouping alongside 2026 All-Stars Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez as well as Shane McClanahan, who has pitched very well after missing all of 2024 and 2025. 

Even if Peralta is more average than good, he’s at least a reliable option to take the ball every five games, and the Rays simply haven’t had that this year. But if he looks at all like he did last year when he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting, Peralta could very well make the Rays the clear team to beat in the American League if they weren’t already. 

Chicago White Sox SP Luis Castillo

The White Sox are the most surprising contender of the 2026 season. Chicago lost 100 or more games each of the last three years and are now leading the AL Central over Cleveland, which has won the division each of the last two seasons. The White Sox didn’t go all-in at the deadline, but they did add a few notable pieces that can greatly help the team. None of their additions can help more than Castillo, a three-time All-Star who comes over from Seattle.

The veteran right-hander was moved in a cost-cutting deal from a Mariners perspective, but for the White Sox, he could be exactly what they need. Chicago really needs another reliable starter in the rotation, and the rotation – and team as a whole – is very young. Castillo is a veteran who is in his 10th MLB season and has been to three postseasons. Additionally, Castillo has a 2.25 postseason ERA across six games (five starts) and 28 innings of work. He’s shown he can slow his heart rate down in big spots. 

But there’s a reason he was available at the deadline. He had a 5.06 ERA for the Mariners this year after having no worse than a 3.64 ERA since being acquired by Seattle from Cincinnati in 2022. His secondary offerings have been unreliable this year, and he’s giving up much harder contact than he ever has. Castillo was part of a six-man rotation in Seattle this year and often was part of a “piggyback” situation where either he’d pitch multiple innings out of the bullpen, or he’d start a game and get taken out pretty early on. In Chicago, he’ll pitch every five games like he has for most of his career, which can certainly help him get back on track.

Castillo had a rough landing spot for his Sox debut in having to pitch against the red-hot Red Sox, giving up five runs over four innings last Thursday. If Castillo can right the ship, he can give the White Sox a stable veteran presence who eats innings, and for a young team, that’s immensely valuable. 

Cleveland Guardians OF Jo Adell

The Guardians also acquired Nathaniel Lowe, but he’s more of a floor player. Adell, at his best, can be one of the best power hitters in baseball. He’s dipped across the board after hitting 37 homers in 2025, but Adell still showcases elite bat speed and has solid hard-hit and exit velocity numbers. He still swings and misses too often, but Adell has game-breaking potential that the Guardians desperately needed. 

If Adell gets hot, he can be the Guardians’ second-best bat alongside Jose Ramirez. And even if he kind of does what he’s been doing, Adell has the ability to change the game with a single swing of the bat. That’s massive for a postseason series, and the Guardians are certainly trending that way. 

New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge

We’ll wrap this up with one of the game’s biggest stars. The Yankees have struggled offensively in Judge’s absence, ranking 21st in runs in June and 26th in May. The three-time MVP has been out of action with a rib injury since May 31. Any team would want – and need – Judge back, but that’s especially the case for New York right now. 

The Yankees added an impact bat in Luis Garcia Jr. from Washington after he’d led the NL in slugging percentage before he was moved, but Judge is the best all-around hitter the game has to offer. 

It’s unclear when he’ll return, and GM Brian Cashman earlier this week suggested there’s a possibility Judge doesn’t play again this year. That’d be a big blow to a Yankees team that is right there in terms of being the best team in the American League. If Judge does return to the fold and is close to 100%, the Yankees become the clear team to beat in the AL, and Judge will only make the lineup – and his teammates – better for it. No player has more X-factor upside the rest of the way than New York’s superstar.