Which surprising MLB teams are for real in 2026? Pirates, Rays and more

The early stages of an MLB season are always interesting as we see some teams get off to hot starts, some struggle out of the gate and others alternate wins and losses while hovering around the .500 mark while we wait to see which side they’ll wind up on. 

That’s once again the case this year, and when it comes to hot starts, we’ve seen that from some very interesting and surprising teams. 

Which 2026 MLB hot starts should fans believe in?

With SeatGeek serving as the Official Ticket Marketplace of MLB, we keep a close eye on all things baseball all the time. There are eight teams we would qualify as having a surprisingly good start to the year, so we’re going to tell you whether we’re buying that they’re a contender, or selling that they can keep this kind of play up. 

And full disclosure: We need a little more time to figure out what’s going on in the American League West right now, so neither the Rangers nor Athletics are mentioned below.

Atlanta Braves (15-7): Buy

I faded the Braves as a World Series team last year, but I thought they’d still be a postseason contender. Injuries and some surprising struggles were big issues, and Atlanta finished the year under .500. It felt like the Braves’ window had closed, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

Atlanta is 15-7 early on, tied with the Dodgers for the most wins in baseball. The Braves feature one of the best lineups and pitching staffs in baseball. The Braves had the game’s best pitching staff in 2024, and they sit first in team ERA at 2.66. They’re the only team with an ERA below 3.00 right now. The lineup has a ton of big names all around, and Atlanta is also first in runs scored. Drake Baldwin has been excellent in Year 2 and Matt Olson is one of the top sluggers in the early stages of the season. Plus, the Braves are playing this well while Ronald Acuna Jr. has yet to truly click at the dish. 

Perhaps we (I) were too harsh when looking at the Braves coming off a poor 2025 showing, because at least right now, they look like one of the more complete teams the game has to offer. 

Minnesota Twins (11-11): Sell

The Twins are a bit colder now after dropping four straight, but given they started the year 11-7, they’re worth mentioning here. Minnesota was a bit of an afterthought in the AL Central entering 2026 considering the Tigers and Guardians had each made the postseason each of the last two years. Plus, Detroit’s pitching staff looks like a real problem for the rest of the league this year. Add in that the Twins had a massive fire sale at last year’s deadline, trading basically everyone of note besides Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton, and it makes sense why the team had little buzz entering 2026.

The players certainly couldn’t care less about expectations, as they’ve been at or near the top of the AL Central standings for most of this year. Obviously a four-game skid puts a damper on things, and it may very well signal that this hot start was just that – a hot start. 

It’s a fun story at this point of the season, but I just can’t put too much stock into this start. Minnesota’s roster is lacking, and while the rotation intrigues me, I don’t see enough from this lineup to justify buying in just yet. Maybe in a month or so that will change, but it feels like the Twins are starting to revert to what was expected of them entering the season.

Cleveland Guardians (13-10): Buy

The Guardians made the playoffs each of the last two years while Stephen Vogt won Manager of the Year both seasons. Now, they’re sitting atop the AL Central standings. So why are they a surprise team?

Well, to me, I just didn’t see enough with this roster to think they could get back to October this year. Yes, Jose Ramirez is a Capital D Dude, but the lineup outside of him and Steven Kwan hardly scared me while the pitching staff is largely unknown.

At least, that’s what I thought. I should know better than to fade Cleveland’s pitching development as the team just continues to churn out reliable arms like breakout players Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick. And despite middling offensive numbers – 16th in runs and 22nd in batting average – the lineup always seems to do just enough to win games.

I still have some reservations about the overall lineup, but I’ll put my hand up for overlooking Cleveland when I shouldn’t have. My bad!

Tampa Bay Rays (12-9): Sell

We’ve been so accustomed to the Rays contending that it’s almost strange to say that they missed the postseason each of the last two years. 

Tampa has been an early-season standout, sitting second in the AL East after the weekend, in large part because of the lineup. Junior Caminero is a stud who will be a menace for years to come, but I just don’t think this lineup has enough talent to rank in the top half of baseball all year long. 

I would have thought the pitching staff would be why the Rays are shining early, but they own a bottom-10 team ERA right now. I actually have more confidence in the arms performing well than the bats.

The Blue Jays and Red Sox being two of baseball’s biggest early-season disappointments certainly could help the Rays’ postseason aspirations, but they just feel like a team that’s more likely to flirt with the .500 mark than a Wild Card berth or AL East title. 

Pittsburgh Pirates (13-9): Buy

The Pirates appear to have a capable lineup! We all knew Paul Skenes would be a stud once again, but arms like Bubba Chandler, Mitch Keller and Braxton Ashcraft all are above-average arms who have helped Pittsburgh rank second in team ERA so far this year. The issue was always going to be the offense.

My thought with Pittsburgh was if the lineup could be average, the team could contend for a Wild Card berth. Well, the lineup has actually been really good so far, ranking sixth in runs scored. Offseason additions Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn have been sensational early on, and it looks like Oneil Cruz is truly breaking out and Bryan Reynolds is returning to his All-Star form. 

There’s obviously a long way to go, but it feels like there’s real reason for optimism in Pittsburgh for the first time in a long time. 

St. Louis Cardinals (13-8): Sell

After being such a steady contender for roughly two decades, the Cardinals have been a very strange team the last few years. St. Louis always seemed to have an elite farm system that churned out elite young talent, but that hasn’t really been the case of late. 

There are a lot of young guys who are playing very well for the Cards this year, such as Jordan Walker (finally!), Alec Burleson and rookie JJ Wetherholdt. St. Louis has had a much better start overall than expected, and those three and the lineup are a major reason why as the Cardinals are a fringe top-10 offense right now. 

I doubt the lineup will continue to perform this way, which is reason enough to sell. But the pitching is where I really fall off on St. Louis. The team is 26th in team ERA and is dead last in strikeouts. Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy are each off to solid starts, but their overall ceilings are limited. There’s little reason to have faith in this bullpen as currently constructed, and Kyle Leahy and Dustin May are off to rough starts in the rotation. 

The time will come when the Cardinals are a regular postseason contender – perhaps sooner than expected – but I don’t see that beginning this year. 

Arizona Diamondbacks (13-9): Buy

My initial reaction was to fade the Diamondbacks, but the more I think about it, the more I think they really can contend for a postseason berth this season.

There are a ton of players on the Diamondbacks who I love watching, particularly Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. Rookie slugger Jose Fernandez is also off to a great start to the year, giving Arizona some added thump, especially with Marte off to a slower start. Obviously Carroll is a stud and Marte will get hot, and those two alone give the Diamondbacks a ton of upside at the plate. But on the mound is where I think Arizona is better than expected – and they should get even better in a few months. 

Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Soroka are off to excellent starts this year and Zac Gallen may be bouncing back from a lackluster 2025. Ryne Nelson is really developing into a steady arm, too, so Arizona has a sneaky good rotation right now. But it’s a few months from now where Arizona could really get interesting. The return of former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes – likely around the All-Star Break – could send the Diamondbacks into another level.

Winning the NL West is likely not a real possibility given how good the Dodgers are, but this team has more than enough talent to earn a Wild Card bid. My biggest question is the bullpen, but that’s the case with many teams. That’s also the easiest thing to help rectify at the deadline if they’re playing well this summer.

San Diego Padres (15-7): Buy

Like the Braves, this is another easy buy for me. The Padres have made the playoffs each of the last two years and four of the last six, but what’s surprising is that they’re playing this well out of the gate, sitting 15-7 and winning nine of their last 10. 

There’s a ton of upside with this team with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill at the dish and Michael King on the hill as well as some notably steady performers like Manny Machado helping anchor the lineup. 

Like Arizona, what hurts the Padres’ playoff chances is having to contend with the Dodgers in the NL West. I don’t think the Padres will necessarily keep pace with the Dodgers for a West crown, but 90+ wins and a Wild Card berth? San Diego has more than enough talent to do that, especially if the NL Central beats itself up throughout the season.