Which surprise NFL teams are for real? Buying and selling the most unexpected starts

We’re two weeks through the 2026 NFL regular season, and everything has totally gone to plan, right? 

Yeah, of course not. This is the NFL we’re talking about. Chaos seems to reign supreme each and every week, and that’s especially true early in the season as we figure out which teams are good and which teams, well, aren’t.

Which surprising 2-0 and 0-2 NFL starts are for real?

There are quite a few teams off to 2-0 starts, and we’ve also got a handful of teams that have yet to record a win just yet. But which hot and cold starts are for real? 

We’re going to look at four teams that are 2-0 to begin 2026 as well as four teams that are 0-2 and figure out whether their starts are worth buying into or not. This is more of a look at surprising starts to 2026, so the Seahawks and Bills being 2-0 isn’t worth getting into just yet, nor is the Dolphins being 0-2. 

Kansas City Chiefs: 2-0

The late-2010 and early-2020s Chiefs have had this sense of inevitability around them as they won a lot, and they always seemed to win the close ones. That went out the window in a shockingly bad 6-11 2025 campaign that saw Patrick Mahomes tear his ACL in the second half. As such, the Chiefs were a team some didn’t view highly entering 2026, especially given the Broncos went 14-3 and had the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year. 

So, the Chiefs’ dynasty is dead, right? Right?

Wrong. Kansas City is 2-0. The Chiefs dismantled those Broncos in Week 1 with a suffocating defense, and in Week 2, Mahomes looked like a former MVP with 382 yards and three touchdowns while Travis Kelce turned back the clock with a 101-yard game with a TD in an overtime win over the Colts. New running back Kenneth Walker III has 290 yards through two games with his new team.

Last year was just so weird on so many levels for the Chiefs that declaring their reign of terror over felt premature. As long as Mahomes is under center with Andy Reid on the sidelines, this team should have a chance. And while Week 2 wasn’t a great showing, there’s a strong case for Steve Spagnuolo being the best defensive play caller in football. That all doesn’t just go away overnight – or even over one season. 

Kansas City is back, is dangerous and has a third-place schedule at its disposal. Beware at your own risk. 

Verdict: Hard Buy

Los Angeles Chargers: 0-2

No team has had a worse start to 2026 than the Chargers. Sure, the Dolphins have looked completely overmatched and the Titans are also looking pretty rough around the edges, but those teams didn’t have preseason expectations – the Chargers did. 

L.A. made the postseason with a JV offensive line last year as the seemingly annual “Super Duper Injury Bug” bit the Chargers once again. But with bookend tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back, plus with the addition of offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, this offense was supposed to take a big step forward as all the pieces seemed to be there for Justin Herbert. Well, through two weeks, L.A. is 0-2, and the team is an ugly 0-2 at that. 

A 26-14 loss to the Cardinals, who were in turn dominated in epic fashion by the Drew Lock-led Seahawks in Week 2, kicked off the misery train, and the Chargers were then beaten by two scores by the Raiders, who are breaking in a new head coach and pretty new roster as well. Herbert has completed less than 60% of his throws, has barely 400 yards through two games and has already tossed three picks. The run game was better in Week 2, but Omarion Hampton has already lost two fumbles. On the other side of the ball, the defense can’t get off the field.

The Chargers have the talent to turn things around, and it’s hard to ever bet against Jim Harbaugh-led teams. But that upcoming schedule … woof. L.A.’s next seven games come against Buffalo, Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the other L.A. team, Houston and Baltimore. That is a brutal stretch for any 0-2 team that is searching for answers. 

I still believe in what the Chargers have in the building, but this is a team that could not afford an 0-2 start given what they’re now staring down. 

Verdict: Sad Buy

Las Vegas Raiders: 2-0

The Raiders just picked first overall in this year’s draft, and they’re 2-0? You betcha. 

Taking down the Dolphins, even by two scores, in Week 1 didn’t really turn any heads given how poor Miami’s roster appears to be, but defeating the aforementioned Chargers sure did. 

Klint Kubiak is on one heck of a streak now after winning a Super Bowl in Seattle last year, and while prized rookie Fernando Mendoza will get handed the keys to the kingdom eventually, Kirk Cousins has tossed six touchdowns – as well as two picks. Ashton Jeanty also has 210 total yards and two scores thus far, and we’re still awaiting star tight end Brock Bowers’ season debut. Defensively, the Raiders rank fifth in points and seventh in yards. 

But how much stock should we put into this 2-0 start? As mentioned, the Dolphins are probably the worst team in football this year, and the Chargers appear destined for a start ranging anywhere from 3-6 to as bad as 0-9 given what the schedule looks like. The Raiders face a plucky Saints team next week before taking on the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams. That’s a rough five-game stretch, and depending how things go in Sin City, there may be calls to get Mendoza into the lineup.

The Raiders’ 2-0 start has been a fun story, but it’s just that – a fun story. This team is destined for a wake-up call in the coming weeks. 

Verdict: Hard Sell

Houston Texans: 0-2

The Texans are one of the bigger surprises when it comes to 0-2 teams. Losing in a shootout against Buffalo is nothing to be ashamed of, but a 20-6 Week 2 loss to the Bengals – who we’ll talk about next – was a bit surprising at first glance given Cincinnati’s defensive struggles from the last few years as well as how good Houston’s offense looked in Week 1. 

But without Nico Collins, CJ Stroud failed to find the end zone despite tossing for 355 yards. David Montgomery also had a bad showing, rushing for 10 yards on six carries and catching two balls for 14 yards after tallying three touchdowns in Week 1. 

The defense did its job, limiting Joe Burrow to 207 yards, sacking him five times and allowing only 85 rushing yards. But the offense’s inability to score was the team’s undoing. 

This is the 0-2 team I’m the least worried about, though. Houston started 0-3 last year before finishing 12-5. The Texans have the Colts, Cowboys, Titans and Giants as four of their next five games with the other being against the Jaguars. The team has a good shot at going 4-1 over that stretch, resulting in a 4-3 start to the year. 

I’m worried about the Texans’ run game given Montgomery is rushing for less than 3 yards per carry, but it’s good to see Stroud able to put up big numbers through the air. If Collins returns in the next week or two as expected, the offense will be pretty dangerous in the passing game. And I am in no way worried about Houston’s defense. 

Verdict: Hard Sell

Cincinnati Bengals: 2-0

As for those Bengals, they’re 2-0 after winning 33-27 over Tampa Bay (the Bucs are next on our list) before taking down Houston 20-6. The defense, which was horrific in 2025, is tied for eighth in points allowed in the early going and has racked up eight sacks and four turnovers (all against the Bucs). That’s a good start!

Joe Burrow has been fine to begin 2026 with 461 yards, three touchdowns and a Pick-6, and Chase Brown has decent numbers so far, though much of that has to do with his workload rather than efficiency. Ja’Marr Chase scored twice in Week 2 after two catches for 12 yards in Week 1, and Tee Higgins already has 154 yards. 

I’m not worried about the Bengals’ offense, so long as Burrow stays healthy – though that is a big ask at this point. The defense had a major offseason overhaul, and the early results are good. They shouldn’t have issues against the Steelers next week, and they have the Dolphins in Week 5, but we’ll learn a lot about Cincy in Weeks 4 and 6 as the Bengals face the Jaguars and Ravens, respectively. 

The Bengals have a manageable schedule, and the defense needs to just be average for them to contend this year. I’m still a bit skeptical, but there’s a very clear pathway to 10+ wins. 

Verdict: Buy

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-2

I still think the Buccaneers have the best roster in the NFC South, but they’re 0-2 and are in real danger of starting the year 0-3 with a home matchup against Minnesota on tap. Baker Mayfield already has four turnovers with a pick in Week 2 and three lost fumbles in Week 1. 

The Week 1 loss came to the Bengals, whose new-look defense caused enough issues to get the team a 33-27 win. But the Bucs’ second loss? That came against a Browns team that looked terrible in Week 1. Tampa Bay let Deshaun Watson complete 80% of his passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns in a game where he was also Cleveland’s leading rusher with 22 yards. 

I’m not quite ready to hit the panic button on the Bucs’ season, but I am getting close. Todd Bowles can’t afford a slow start to this year, especially with how poor the NFC South looks once again. The schedule is pretty average the rest of the way, and there are simply too many good veteran players for the Bucs to be bad. 

Verdict: Sell, but ask me again in a month

Minnesota Vikings: 2-0

The Bucs’ next opponent, the Vikings, find themselves 2-0 and feeling pretty dang good about it.

Minnesota has found different ways to win this year. In Week 1, the defense stepped up late and the offense capitalized with 22 unanswered points in the fourth quarter against Green Bay. In Week 2, the defense led the way in a sloppy and wet game in Chicago, with the Vikings taking that one 9-3. 

I had the Vikings pegged as a playoff team before 2026 began, and I feel even stronger about that now. Kyler Murray should be back for Week 3 after a Week 1 concussion, which will help the offense after Carson Wentz was up and down the last two weeks. That they found ways to win without Murray says a lot about this team. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is making life miserable for opposing offenses with his exotic blitz packages, and if Murray gets rolling under center, the Vikings are going to be a team no one wants to see on their schedule. 

Verdict: Hard Buy

Atlanta Falcons: 0-2

Kevin Stefanski had uncertainty at quarterback for much of his Cleveland tenure, so this is nothing new for him now that he’s in Atlanta. But good lord, the Falcons’ offense is a mess. 

The Falcons have four QBs on the 53-man roster, but who knows what’s going to happen next. Tua Tagovailoa was supposed to start, but an oblique injury before Week 1 thrust Cooper Rush into action, and he has thrown four picks already. Rush was benched for undrafted rookie free agent Jack Strand in Week 2, and he threw a Pick-6 on his first NFL pass. Michael Penix Jr. is cleared for action after a torn ACL last season, but he’s been inactive the first two weeks. 

Penix probably gives the offense the highest ceiling, but the guy hasn’t suited up yet for Stefanski, so who knows?

The Falcons’ defense was fine in Week 1, keeping the team in it against the Steelers in a close 20-13 loss. But the wheels fell off with a 34-3 loss at home to the Panthers. The team tallying 129 passing yards that game didn’t help. Bijan Robinson has been solid, but he can only do so much. Drake London is a stud receiver, but he can’t throw himself the ball.

Unless Penix or Tagovailoa emerge as a strong starter under center, this season could get ugly fast. The Falcons get the Packers on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 3, and they’ve got the Saints, Ravens, Bears and 49ers after that. Stefanski needs answers under center, and fast. 

Verdict: Buy