The 5 MLB teams most likely to upset the Dodgers in the 2026 playoffs

One great part of MLB seasons being 162 games is that there are countless storylines to follow from Game 1 through Game 162 and then into the postseason. We see new storylines pop up on a game-to-game, series-to-series and week-to-week basis, such as breakout stars, red-hot teams or squads who are struggling, but many of the more notable stories to follow were well established before game action even began. 

Look no further than the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have won each of the last two World Series titles and are looking to become just the third franchise in MLB history to win three titles in a row. Los Angeles certainly could have stood pat in the offseason with a loaded roster set to return, but instead, the Dodgers went out and added the top bat on the market in Kyle Tucker and arguably baseball’s best closer in Edwin Diaz.

The Dodgers are certainly playing with a loaded hand when it comes to the team’s roster, but that doesn’t mean we should just pen them in for winning the 2026 World Series. 

National League teams that have the best chance to upset the Dodgers in a playoff series

Upsets make sports great, and these five MLB teams have the best chance of upsetting the Dodgers in a postseason series. 

San Diego Padres

“Know thy enemy” is a common saying that probably gets thrown around a bit too often, but it makes a lot of sense here considering the Dodgers and Padres are well-established rivals who see each other on a regular basis. These teams have met not only very often in the regular season, but also twice in the playoffs since 2022. L.A. has had the overall edge in this rivalry both historically and of late, but the Padres did knock the Dodgers off in the 2022 NLDS before falling to Philadelphia in the NLCS. 

The Padres have a good mix of floor and upside, with the former established by the likes of Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth and the latter by Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Merrill. Tatis is capable of winning MVP, Bogaerts is a former annual All-Star who could easily post a big bounce-back year and Merrill looked like a future MVP candidate in 2024. 

There are some concerns on the pitching front, especially after losing Dylan Cease to Toronto in free agency, but Michael King, Joe Musgrave and Yu Darvish are established names while Nick Pivetta is coming off a major breakout season. 

The pieces are there for the Padres to contend and make life extremely difficult for the Dodgers in a potential postseason series, but San Diego has quite a bit of variance in terms of its floor vs. ceiling.

Philadelphia Phillies

Few teams can come close to the Dodgers’ level of postseason experience, but the Phillies are certainly up there in that regard. Philly has made the playoffs each of the last four years with one World Series appearance along the way. The Dodgers got the last laugh in the NLDS last year, winning 3-1, but the Phillies have the makeup in all phases to make a deep playoff run and potentially unseat the defending champs. 

The lineup remains deep and experienced, with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto all in the mix. There’s also some upside in the lineup with veteran addition Adolis Garcia and rookie speedster Justin Crawford, son of former stolen base whiz Carl Crawford. 

The rotation will be without star right-hander Zack Wheeler for a little while, and the Phillies certainly missed him last postseason. Cristopher Sanchez has emerged as a legit Cy Young contender, however, while Aaron Nola could easily rebound from what was the worst season of his career. Jesus Luzardo was stellar in his first year in Philly, and Andrew Painter is a top prospect who many have seen as the best pitching prospect in baseball. Philly also has a full season of star closer Jhoan Duran to work in a very good bullpen, so Philly could certainly get some longballs from its stars before handing things over to Duran and Co. en route to an upset of the Dodgers. 

New York Mets

As much as I wanted to pick the Cubs for this final National League spot, I had to go with the more logical – and likely – choice in the Mets.

The Dodgers made headlines with the additions of Tucker and former Mets star Diaz in free agency, but no team overhauled its roster more than New York. Diaz is gone, as are franchise home run leader Pete Alonso and longtime outfielder Brandon Nimmo. The Mets did a mighty fine job negating those losses, however, trading for All-Star starter Freddy Peralta, boosting the bullpen with Devin Williams and Luke Weaver and adding established veteran bats in Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco and, most notably, Bo Bichette.

The arms all offer tremendous upside to around, and a full season of Nolan McLean as well as a potentially fully healthy year from Kodai Senga should have Mets fans excited as well. The lineup will certainly miss the thump Alonso provided, and the team didn’t add anyone with the kind of power he provides. However, Bichette is a lineup stabilizer while Polanco and Semien and proven veteran bats with tremendously high floors when healthy. 

Those kinds of things matter a ton in a postseason series, and even with their big offseason losses, there’s a strong case to be made that the Mets have the second-best roster in the National League behind the Dodgers. If anyone in the NL can knock off L.A., it’s most likely to be New York. 

American League teams that have the best chance to upset the Dodgers in the World Series

I think there’s a clear “big four” in the American League this year in Seattle, Toronto, New York and Detroit, but only two make the cut here. 

The Dodgers knocked off the Yankees in five games in the 2024 World Series, and New York has a very similar roster to that unit while L.A. has only continued to add elite talent like Tucker and Diaz. Detroit, I think, will be even better this year with an improved offense and an excellent addition of Framber Valdez to the rotation, but I don’t think the Tigers stack up well in a best-of-seven format against the two-time defending champs. 

As for the Blue Jays and Mariners, however, I think both could get it done.

Toronto Blue Jays

Why the Blue Jays here? I mean, they nearly beat the Dodgers in the World Series last year. Toronto had a 3-2 edge in the series before narrowly losing Games 6 and 7 at home, culminating in an epic Game 7 that saw Miguel Rojas and Will Smith hit massive home runs late in the game.

The Jays will need to keep the rotation healthy so they’re not relying so much on Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage down the stretch, and adding Dylan Cease should help a lot. Another key will be the bullpen, which was the Jays’ undoing at the end of the season. There’s plenty of big-time stuff, but guys like Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland will need to pitch better in key leverage spots if they want to upset a team like the Dodgers.

The lineup – even with the loss of Bichette to the Mets – will make Toronto a tough out regardless of opponent, even if that opponent boasts a star-studded pitching staff like the Dodgers do. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a monster in last year’s postseason while George Springer, Addison Barger and others all had key contributions as well. The addition of Japanese superstar Kazuma Okamoto could be one of the bigger moves of the offseason and negate any losses felt by Bichette’s absence. 

Seattle Mariners

I picked the Mariners to face the Dodgers in the World Series this year, and while I think Los Angeles would have the upper hand in that matchup, Seattle could certainly pull off the upset in what would be the franchise’s first World Series appearance. 

For starters, well, the starters. The Mariners own an incredibly deep rotation with four arms who have made All-Star Games since 2023 in Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo. Bryce Miller, who battled injury last year before emerging as the team’s most reliable postseason starter, is about as good of a No. 5 starter as you’ll find. The Mariners missed Woo for essentially the entire postseason, so keeping that group healthy after he, Gilbert, Kirby and Miller all missed decent chunks of time would go a long way in a seven-game series. The bullpen is also dangerous, anchored by Andres Munoz and Matt Brash. The addition of Jose Ferrer Jr. could help a lot, too, in terms of getting key lefties out in big spots. 

The Mariners also boast a sneaky good lineup, anchored, of course, by Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh. Josh Naylor proved to be a valuable addition last trade deadline while Randy Arozarena has a proven track record in the postseason. The key to Seattle’s success could well be how Brendan Donovan adjusts to his new team after being traded to the M’s from St. Louis.