2026 MLB first-half winners and losers: Biggest player breakouts and disappointments

We’d love for all of our favorite players to get off to great starts to a season and enter the All-Star Break with numbers that really stand out on the back of a baseball card, but that’s just not always the case. 

Baseball is a tough game, and as we’ve seen this year, even some of the bigger names can struggle for months on end. But baseball also has a fun way of going in the opposite direction with players bouncing back from tough seasons, emerging as a breakout star or taking a massive step forward after a strong performance a year ago.

With the first half in the books, we at SeatGeek, the Official Ticket Marketplace of MLB, have identified 20 players – 10 pitchers and 10 hitters – who stand out as the biggest winners and losers of the 2026 season to date. We’ll start with five hitters who have really dominated thus far. 

Biggest hitting winners of the 2026 MLB season so far

This group includes established stars producing MVP-caliber seasons, former top prospects finally breaking through and unexpected contributors helping reshape the playoff race.

Astros DH Yordan Alvarez

Look, when you have a legit shot at the Triple Crown, you’re a winner in my book.

The Astros haven’t had the best season to date – though they have been better of late – but the offense remains elite thanks largely to the play of Alvarez, who is slashing .318/.426/.633 with 31 home runs and 70 RBIs. The lefty slugger leads the American League in home runs and RBIs and is second in batting average. 

The AL MVP race was shaken up with Aaron Judge’s injury, and Alvarez has since taken control. His numbers are stellar, and even if the Astros don’t make the playoffs, a Triple Crown season – or close to it – could earn him his first MVP award. 

Marlins SS Otto Lopez

The Marlins have been red hot to close out the first half and went from a lackluster squad to one of the more intriguing teams to watch over the final few months of the season. Lopez is a massive reason why. 

The 27-year-old shortstop has been one of the breakout stars of the first half, and he leads MLB with a .334 batting average and has an .873 OPS along with 17 stolen bases to propel the Marlins into the Wild Card race. Lopez, thankfully, earned All-Star honors for his elite play, and has cemented himself as one of baseball’s premier hitters in his third full season of MLB action.

Cardinals OF Jordan Walker

The Cardinals have been one of the bigger surprises in the National League to date, and a breakout performance by Walker has been arguably the team’s best development. 

Walker is a former top prospect who performed pretty well as a rookie in 2023 before struggling across the last two years in limited action. The big outfielder is still just 24 years old, and he’s an All-Star and looking like many expected he would when he was tearing up the minor leagues. Walker is hitting .294 and OPSing nearly .900 with 22 home runs and an MLB-leading 74 RBIs. The Cardinals’ overall lineup isn’t the best, but Walker has carried the load pretty much from Opening Day onward and has St. Louis in a great spot entering the second half. 

White Sox IFs Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery

We’ll combine these two because they’ve each been instrumental to a surprising first half by Chicago. Vargas was essentially a league-average bat last year for the White Sox, but that was good enough to be one of the team’s best players. He now has over 3 bWAR with 21 home runs and an .848 OPS as a first-time All-Star and a very important piece of Chicago’s lineup.

Vargas’ breakout campaign has been great news for the Sox, while Montgomery’s is arguably more important. The former first-round pick and top prospect showed a ton of promise in 2025 as a rookie with 3.3 bWAR, 21 homers and an .840 OPS in just 71 games. His numbers haven’t been quite as good, but 2.1 bWAR, 23 homers and a .771 OPS entering the All-Star Break is nothing to scoff at, even if he’s hitting just .220. These two, along with rookie Munetaka Murakami, have the Sox primed and ready for a second-half run no one saw coming. Heck, that these two have the White Sox tied for first place in the AL Central even with Murakami missing more than a month has them deserving of immense praise. 

Biggest hitting disappointments of the 2026 MLB season so far

Several proven stars entered 2026 with high hopes but hit the All-Star Break searching for the production their teams expected.

Mariners C Cal Raleigh

I don’t think anyone expected Raleigh to replicate his historic 60-homer campaign from a year ago, which set the single-season home run record for the Mariners, catchers and switch-hitters, but Raleigh had hit 27+ homers the three years prior to his incredible 2025 season. But “The Big Dumper” has been more of “The Big Bummer” in the first half. After a lackluster World Baseball Classic showing, Raleigh got off to a dreadful start to 2026 before missing over a month with an oblique injury. 

Whether that injury is fully to blame for a poor first half that sees the 2025 AL MVP runner-up hitting .169 with a .271 on-base percentage, a sub-.600 OPS and a 32.4% strikeout rate is certainly a question to ask, and now that he’s been back for nearly a month, the Mariners will need him to return at least close to form in the second half if they want to take control of a lackluster AL West. 

Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

When we last saw Guerrero in 2025, he was dominating the postseason and helped get the Blue Jays to within one out of winning the World Series. After such a monster playoff showing, expectations were high for Toronto’s superstar first baseman. Instead, Guerrero has been pretty darn underwhelming in 2026. 

While Guerrero, unlike most of his fellow star Blue Jays teammates, has stayed healthy, he is OPSing just over .700 with only six home runs. Heck, he hit eight in 18 playoff games last October alone! The Jays’ offense has been a problem, and Guerrero isn’t too much of a help. He’s hitting the ball hard enough, but there’s just been no slug. Toronto is still in the Wild Card race by virtue of the AL being pretty weak this year, and if the Jays are to make a run, Guerrero has to lead the charge. 

Padres 3B Manny Machado 

I think this has been one of the more startling first-half performances in all of 2026. The future Hall of Famer is having far and away the worst year of his career. All of Machado’s numbers are down across the board, as he’s hitting .203, has an on-base percentage of .290 and is OPSing .708. Machado’s 19 home runs are really his only saving grace this first half. 

Like Guerrero, Machado’s struggles are amplified by how poor his team has been offensively. The Padres have scored the fewest runs in baseball to date and desperately need Machado in particular to step up to keep them in the playoff hunt. That hasn’t happened yet, and while track record would suggest Machado will get going eventually, it’s rare to see a player of his caliber struggle so mightily for this long. It’s also worth noting Machado historically is a better performer in the first half of seasons compared to the second half. 

Red Sox OF Jarren Duran 

Duran looked like he was on a superstar trajectory after a 9.0 bWAR season in 2024. He still posted nearly 5 bWAR in 2025, but Duran’s numbers dipped pretty much everywhere in 2025. Still, even if he posted a line like he did a year ago, you could still look at his season as a success. That has hardly been the case.

The Red Sox have had an issue scoring runs for basically all of 2026, and Duran is a big reason why. He’s hitting under .200 with a .259 on-base percentage and an OPS closer to .600 than .700. The Red Sox are starting to get hot, but Duran is not. He’s gone from a top player in Boston to a liability. 

Braves 3B Austin Riley

From 2021-23, few players were better than Riley. He posted at least 6 bWAR each of those three seasons with 33+ homers and 93+ RBIs with three top-seven MVP finishes. He missed at least 50 games each of the last two years, and his overall numbers dipped. It seemed easy to suggest that a healthy 2026 would have Riley back to his mashing ways. Wrong. 

The Braves have been a great first-half story as they lead the NL East after finishing under .500 in 2025, but Riley has swatted just nine home runs, is barely hitting over .200 and is striking out in roughly one-third of his at-bats. The Braves are positioned well to handle Riley’s struggles, but he’s the type of bat that can make Atlanta go from a playoff team to a true World Series contender. The Braves also would love to have their big third baseman get hot with the Phillies nipping on their heels. 

Biggest pitching winners of the 2026 MLB season so far

From Cy Young contenders to veteran reclamation projects, these pitchers used dominant first halves to elevate both their own stock and their teams’ postseason hopes.

Rays RHP Nick Martinez 

A well-deserved first-time All-Star, Martinez is having the best year of his career in Year 1 in Tampa Bay. The veteran right-hander has bounced around from team to team and even spent time in Japan, but he’s never enjoyed the kind of success he’s having with the first-place Rays. Martinez is 8-2 with a 2.65 ERA over 105 1/3 innings, and his changeup has been one of baseball’s best pitches. Martinez signed for $13 million this year with a mutual option for 2027, and that’s looking like the best bargain of the 2025-26 offseason.

Yankees RHP Cam Schlittler

Schlittler was great as a rookie last year, posting 2.1 bWAR with a 2.96 ERA and 10.4 K/9 over 14 starts. He’s taken a massive leap in Year 2 with an AL-leading 2.01 ERA, 0.929 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and just 1.7 walks per nine. He’s led a pitching staff that was without former Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole to begin the year and that later lost Max Fried for a while due to injury. Now, the young Schlittler is the favorite to win AL Cy Young. Not bad, kid. 

Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski 

Speaking of Year 2 leaps, how about “The Mis?” Misiorowski dazzled at times as a rookie but ultimately had a 4.36 ERA across 15 appearances, and he’s been basically what Paul Skenes has been the last two years. Misiorowski has a lowly 1.62 ERA, 10-4 record, 0.757 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 and a ridiculous 4.6 H/9 rate. In addition to the absurd box score numbers, Misiorowski has been a record-setter in terms of fastball velocity from a starting pitcher. There's truly no one like him. 

Brewers LHP Kyle Harrison 

Harrison was, at one point, one of the premier left-handed pitching prospects the game had to offer. As a result, he was a key part of the Rafael Devers trade with Boston last season after an OK start to his MLB career. He made just three appearances for the Red Sox before they shipped him to Milwaukee, and the result has been Harrison emerging as a key piece for one of baseball’s top teams. 

We already highlighted Misiorowski’s electric first half, but Harrison is no slouch as a No. 2 option. He has given up six runs over just 6 2/3 innings over his last two starts, but overall, Harrison has a 3.01 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 83 2/3 innings this season. Not only is Harrison a top arm for Milwaukee this year, but he and Misiorowski should give the Brewers a lot of talent and stability atop the rotation for years to come. 

Diamondbacks LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Rodriguez’s four-year, $80 million deal with Arizona was one of the worst contracts in baseball … until 2026, that is. After shining for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, Rodriguez has anchored a Diamondbacks rotation that desperately needed a true No. 1 with Corbin Burnes on the shelf. Rodriguez has a 2.29 ERA, 8-3 record and 4.2 bWAR over 19 starts, and he’s a big reason why Arizona is still in the Wild Card hunt. It’s rare to see a career year at age 33 and in your 11th season, but that’s what the Diamondbacks are getting from Rodriguez, and they certainly aren’t complaining. 

Biggest pitching disappointments of the 2026 MLB season so far

Whether because of declining stuff, failed expectations or rough introductions to new teams, these pitchers became major first-half concerns for clubs that needed much more from them.

Diamondbacks RHP Zac Gallen 

The Diamondbacks have to be thanking their lucky stars for Rodriguez’s breakout season as Gallen has been maybe baseball’s least valuable full-time starting pitcher who doesn’t pitch for the Rockies. The former All-Star has an ugly 6.34 ERA and 1.561 WHIP while giving up 11.2 hits per nine innings. Gallen took Arizona’s qualifying offer last offseason and is a pending free agent, but he may not have much of a market after this disastrous campaign. After posting a 3.20 ERA between 2022-24, Gallen has a 5.34 ERA since the start of 2025. Ouch.

Phillies RHP Aaron Nola

Nola had a 6.01 ERA as part of an injury-plagued 2025 campaign, and he’s hardly bounced back in 2026. Nola has been a major liability in a Phillies rotation that has some elite arms at the top. His fastballs are getting absolutely pelted, with opponents hitting .368 off his 4-seamer and .357 off his sinker. His curveball and changeup are each still very good offerings, but opponents are not fooled by Nola’s heaters this year. Nola has been a mainstay in Philly’s rotation for years and years, but he’s looking like a major weak point for this team entering the second half. 

Phillies RHP Andrew Painter

It may seem unfair to put a rookie who’s now in the minors on this list, but Painter had an ERA of 7.06 as part of Philly’s rotation. Painter was arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball for years, but it’s clear that he’s not ready just yet for MLB action on the heels of Tommy John surgery in 2023 that cost him all of 2024 and likely played a part in a 5+ ERA in Triple A in 2025. The Phillies, even with Nola’s struggles, have the talent in the rotation to handle Painter’s struggles and subsequent demotion, but there has to be some doubt about his long-term prospects given just how poorly his first 14 games (12 starts) went. 

Mets RHP Freddy Peralta

It’s been an awful year for the Mets, and 2026 has also been a rough one for Peralta. The former Milwaukee standout was brought in to anchor New York’s rotation as part of a playoff push. Instead, the Mets are maybe baseball’s most disappointing team of 2026 and Peralta is having his worst year since 2019. The veteran right-hander has seen his velocity dip while missing fewer bats and barrels after finishing fifth in Cy Young voting last year. He enters the second half with a 4.66 ERA over 20 starts. A pending free agent, Peralta will be a name to watch both in terms of whether he can rebuild his value, but also whether the Mets opt to trade him to a contender in need of an arm.

Astros RHP Mike Burrows 

Was Burrows supposed to be a star? No. But he was a major pickup for the Astros this past offseason, and he was expected to be a key piece in a rotation that lost Framber Valdez to Detroit in free agency. Burrows has been one of the worst starters in MLB this year with a 5.99 ERA and -1.2 bWAR in 18 games (17 starts). Burrows isn’t missing barrels or bats, and his K/9 dropped from 9.1 with Pittsburgh last year to 7.1 this year. He’s also allowed 21 homers in just 94 2/3 innings. The end result? Burrows was demoted after allowing 10 runs (seven earned) in his last start against Washington on July 6.