
The last few weeks of the 2026 college football season have been pretty incredible. Chaos has been the name of the game, and we’re seeing wild upsets pretty much every week. In fact, a team ranked in the top two of the AP poll has lost four weeks in a row now.
There have been some huge games over the last few weeks, but Week 10 this weekend is going to be a doozy.
There are eight games on tap that will have huge College Football Playoff implications, so we’re going to highlight those matchups and share our picks for each game.
This is a battle of two-loss ACC teams, with both teams having lost twice in conference play. We know Miami – the No. 1 team in America – is in the driver’s seat as it pertains to making the ACC Championship Game, but as for who that second team will be, that’s unclear. As such, both the Hokies and Mustangs are in contention.
The Mustangs were 6-1 entering Week 9, but SMU stumbled against Syracuse, giving the Orange just their second ACC win of the year. SMU’s other loss this season came to Louisville, which is 5-3 overall and 4-2 in conference play. The Mustangs have a veteran team led by quarterback Kevin Jennings Jr., and he’s one of a handful of players left from SMU’s CFP team from 2024.
As for the Hokies, it’s been a successful Year 1 for James Franklin. The longtime Penn State coach has Virginia Tech sitting at 6-2 with losses to Pittsburgh and Cal. That the Hokies can even be mentioned in the ACC title picture after a 3-9 season last year is a big win, and a road win at SMU would further show Franklin has Virginia Tech on the right track.
We’ll side with the home side here, though. Franklin has done a nice job in his first year with the Hokies, but SMU is 16-2 at home over the last three years, and it would be surprising if Rhett Lashlee doesn’t have his team ready to play after a stunning loss to Syracuse.
Pick: SMU 30, Virginia Tech 20
Given how much chaos there has been of late, three losses – especially out of the SEC and Big Ten – may not be disqualifying when it comes to making the College Football Playoff. That being said, no team wants to leave that to chance by finishing 9-3. That’s important to note as both Texas and Missouri enter Week 10 with identical 6-2 records.
The Longhorns have won two straight since losing at home to Florida, which followed a loss to rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Texas is trending toward a similar position to last year when the Horns went 9-3 but were one of the first teams left out of the CFP. Quarterback Arch Manning has been a lightning rod of criticism, and he’s coming off one of his best games of the year, throwing three touchdowns to no interceptions while completing 80% of his passes in a blowout win over Mississippi State. The Longhorns need Manning to get and stay hot these next two weeks with visits to Missouri and LSU on tap.
The Tigers have been a good team under Eli Drinkwitz, but they’re trying to take the next step forward toward national prominence. Mizzou lost to Mississippi State at the end of September when Bulldogs star QB Kamario Taylor was still healthy and playing at a high level, and the Tigers were blown out by Ole Miss a few weeks ago. They’re coming off a thorough win at Arkansas. The Tigers have Texas, Georgia and Kentucky over their next three games, so this is the start of a brutal stretch that will almost immediately determine the team’s CFP hopes.
This is a tough one to pick, but I think I’m going to ride with the Tigers. I have not been impressed with Texas this year outside of the win over Ohio State. Manning has not risen up in big games and has just three games without an interception. Missouri is unbeaten at home, and while they’re not as overall talented as the Longhorns, the Tigers have a lot of firepower and a more than capable quarterback in Austin Simmons.
Pick: Missouri 27, Texas 20
How about the Big 12? The conference has really taken a step forward this year, and the two Utah schools are a big reason why.
BYU was unbeaten and No. 2 in the nation just two weeks ago before stumbling in a shootout at UCF, but the Cougars rebounded by beating Arizona State 27-20. Bear Bachmeier is one of the nation’s top dual-threat quarterbacks and is capable of taking any game over. BYU is battle tested overall, including a win over Notre Dame, but the Cougars have, at times, been unable to separate from lesser competition, beating TCU and ASU by just a single touchdown.
The Utes are unbeaten and sit atop the Big 12 hierarchy. After surviving a scare at Colorado, first-year head coach Morgan Scalley has gotten his team rolling with a nice win over a very good Houston team and a blowout of a Cincinnati team that had just knocked off Texas Tech. Quarterback Devon Dampier is as dangerous as they come with both his arm and legs, and he has Utah riding a 14-game winning streak – the longest in the nation.
These are two evenly matched teams, and the rivalry element only heightens what should be one of the best games of the week. The Utes haven’t lost since falling at BYU last October, and I think I’ve got to roll with the home side here.
Pick: Utah 30, BYU 24
The trajectory of this game has been a strange one.
Entering the season, this looked like a Game of the Year candidate. Then Oregon lost to Oklahoma State and wound up losing quarterback Dante Moore for the year and lost two more games in the process.
Ohio State lost at Texas but seemed to be a top contender before Julian Sayin got injured at Indiana. The question then was how the Buckeyes’ offense would look without him, and the answer was “bad.” OSU scored just 18 points against a bad USC defense last week to fall to 6-2. The Buckeyes’ loss to the Trojans caused them to fall out of the top 10 altogether.
I don’t think anyone would have guessed these teams would have a combined five losses at this stage of the year.
I don’t see Oregon making the CFP even if the Ducks win out given the losses the team has had to date are largely poor, but you never know. As for the Buckeyes, that loss to Texas has not aged the best. As such, this is a pivotal game for each side. An Oregon loss is just the final nail in the coffin of what has been a disaster in Eugene, while a Buckeyes loss may signal that the team’s CFP hopes are lost.
Oregon has not been the best on either side of the ball this year. The Ducks fired their offensive coordinator, and the defense, which was supposed to be one of the best in America, has given up a lot of points and big plays this season in Big Ten play. Moore’s injury has thrust both Dylan Raiola and Brock Stewart into action at different points, and Raiola figures to be the guy for this week after leading the Ducks to a comeback win over Northwestern.
Ohio State’s offense looked lost without Sayin. Freshman Luke Fahey was put into a tough spot, and even coming off a bye, the Buckeyes’ offense had no answers against a susceptible USC defense. Perhaps OSU learned something, either about how to use Fahey or that Tavien St. Clair should start this week, but that performance was a tough watch.
Oregon enters this game in better shape, but even after that performance at USC, it’s hard for me to fade the Buckeyes. The team is too talented top to bottom to lose three games already, and I think OSU will have a better plan of attack offensively this week, especially at home.
Pick: Ohio State 27, Oregon 23
Two rivals square off in a colossal SEC tilt with Alabama visiting LSU. Each side is 6-2 with both losses coming in SEC play. The Crimson Tide lost to Georgia and Tennessee in consecutive games, while LSU lost to Lane Kiffin’s former team, Ole Miss, as well as Kentucky in a close overtime thriller. At No. 9, Alabama is the nation’s highest-ranked two-loss team.
The Tide have an elite scoring offense behind Keelon Russell, a first-year standout at quarterback, but that unit has not played particularly well of late. Alabama scored 17 and 10 points in its two losses before scoring 31 against a Texas A&M team that’s fallen off a cliff this year, though seven points came from a pick-6. Russell and Co. have not played great against the top-end SEC defenses they’ve faced, and LSU is 14th in scoring defense this season.
The Tigers are not just 14th in scoring defense, but they’re seventh in points per game nationally this year. The offense has done a good job overall, but Sam Leavitt has been turnover prone at times and has thrown eight interceptions. That can’t happen if the Tigers are to knock off Alabama.
This is an enormous game for each side. I think a three-loss SEC team can get into the CFP, and these are two top contenders in that tier. LSU faces Texas and Tennessee after this, while Alabama has a much easier path forward against Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn.
With this game in Baton Rouge and Alabama’s offense having really struggled against better defenses this year, I’ll roll not with the Tide, but the Tigers at home for Kiffin’s first signature win
Pick: LSU 31, Alabama 27
The biggest story in the SEC this year has been No. 8 Kentucky. Will Stein has the Wildcats sitting at 7-1 with a 5-1 SEC record – the lone blemish was in September to Alabama. Their next test is a massive one at No. 16 Tennessee.
The Vols knocked off Alabama a few weeks ago and are 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the SEC after falling to South Carolina ahead of the bye. The defense is one of the nation’s best, especially when it comes to rushing the quarterback, but the offense has questions, namely at quarterback, with Week 1 starter Faizon Brandon working his way back from injury and George MacIntyre filling in since. It’s unclear what Tennessee’s plan is at that spot.
The Wildcats are 7-1 and just find ways to win. They upset LSU in overtime a week after beating South Carolina in overtime – both games were 35-34 Kentucky. The Wildcats most recently beat Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.
Kentucky is certainly knocking on the door of the CFP, as is Tennessee. The Vols still face LSU in a few weeks, while Kentucky has Florida, Missouri and Louisville left after this week.
As fun as the story has been so far for the Wildcats, I’m going to side with Tennessee. That defensive front is no joke, and Kentucky is just 41st in scoring offense and 65th in scoring defense. I think the team is overperforming this year. Regardless, Stein has this thing moving in the right direction – I just think the bubble could burst this weekend in Knoxville.
Pick: Tennessee 23, Kentucky 16
Two of the top SEC powerhouses clash in a pivotal battle in Oxford. The Bulldogs are No. 2 overall and are 7-1 after returning from their bye with a thorough win over Florida where their defense took over. The Rebels are 6-2 with losses to Texas and Florida and are No. 12.
The Bulldogs’ lone loss of the year came against Auburn ahead of their bye week, a bit of a surprise considering it was at home in Athens. Other than that, Georgia has played very well this year, including a notable road win at Alabama.
Ole Miss’ biggest moment came by taking down former head coach Lane Kiffin and the LSU Tigers. The Rebels have also beaten Missouri but were dominated at Florida and suffered a close loss at Texas two weeks ago.
All eyes will be on the quarterbacks with Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss one of the best players in the nation, while Gunner Stockton has been great and efficient for the Bulldogs on offense.
Given everything we’ve seen this year in college football and from these two teams, I think the Bulldogs are still one of the better teams in the nation. They’re on my shortlist of teams I think are actually capable of making the College Football Playoff. Georgia is top 11 in scoring offense and defense, and Ole Miss, despite having a defensive-minded head coach, are just 57th in America in scoring defense. I have a hard time seeing the Rebels slowing down Georgia’s offense here, and I think the Bulldogs will make enough plays on defense to make life hard for Chambliss.
Pick: Georgia 24, Ole Miss 17
Perhaps the biggest game of the day in all of college football comes in South Bend with the No. 4-ranked Fighting Irish of Notre Dame hosting the No. 1-ranked Miami Hurricanes. Miami is one of just three unbeaten teams left, while Notre Dame has just one loss at BYU on its ledger.
This game is full of storylines. For starters, this is a rematch of an epic game last year that Miami won 27-24. That game had massive CFP implications as each side ended 10-2, but the Hurricanes made the playoff while the Irish did not.
Additionally, this is far and away the biggest test for Miami to date. The Hurricanes have largely aced everything so far, but outside of Wake Forest, they haven’t played anyone of note. And even then, they needed overtime to beat Florida State and only beat North Carolina by three points last week. The Irish also have had a softer schedule to begin the year, and they lost their only real test to date at BYU.
Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is viewed by many as the Heisman Trophy frontrunner, and receiver Malachi Toney is perhaps the most dynamic player in the country. Those two have helped Miami put up 49.0 points per game – tops in the nation. As for Notre Dame, Marcus Freeman’s group is probably the nation’s most balanced team. The Irish are No. 6 in scoring offense and No. 5 in scoring defense.
I love Mensah and Toney, and I think that duo will make their share of plays on Saturday. But I think Notre Dame is going to be very motivated after last year’s loss. Miami has had its share of close calls against lesser opponents of late, and Notre Dame is hardly that. Plus, this matchup is in South Bend, where the Fighting Irish have lost just three times since 2023.
Pick: Notre Dame 27, Miami 24
📁 Categories: NCAA Football
🏷️ Tags: Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Miami Hurricanes, LSU Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Utah Utes, BYU Cougars, Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes, Tennessee Volunteers, Kentucky Wildcats

Brandon Gustafson is an MLB, NFL and college football analyst for SeatGeek. A former college baseball pitcher, Brandon has worked full-time in sports media since 2019 covering MLB, NFL and more with stops at Seattle Sports 710 AM, Pro Football Network and currently CBS Sports. Brandon lives in the greater-Seattle area with his wife and son.